Future changes in the output value of different industrial sectors in China are of great interest 24, 25. Nowadays, controlling global warming and carbon emissions has become a common concern for all countries around the world, especially when China announced its carbon neutrality goal. With the decline of agricultural output and the rise of service sector, the contribution of primary, secondary and tertiary industries to the total economic volume is also changing. The tertiary industry refers to other industries except the primary and secondary industries, includes sectors that serve production and consumption such as commerce, finance, trust, and service industries that provide a variety of labour services. The secondary industry largely the manufacturing, mining and construction sectors. According to the national industries classification in China, the primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy, China has gradually transitioned into an industrial country from an early agricultural country and is transforming into a service-oriented country at present. As the second largest economy worldwide, the rapid economic development of China has received global attention. With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, economic development, carbon emissions and global warming have been linked more closer than before 23. As an important complement to previous climate scenarios, SSPs have been widely adopted in the projection of energy, resources, environment and other fields over the last few years 18, 19, 20, 21, 22. Thereafter, shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were developed in parallel to characterize future societies facing different mitigation and adaptation challenges 15, 16, 17.
Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), which reflect various concentration targets of greenhouse gases, have been widely applied since the mid-2000s to project potential changes in future climate 13, 14. Socioeconomic patterns under future scenarios have become an important segment in the research realm of climate change impacts and risks 9, 10.Īs an essential part of climate projection, climate scenarios provide plausible descriptions of future world conditions and the uncertainty scope under future societal and climate conditions 11, 12. Moreover, as the warming trend persists, an increasing number of socioeconomic sectors will be exposed to weather and climate extremes globally 6, 7, 8. Intense economic activities and rapid technological progress have greatly changed the global environment 5.
The high-resolution economic dataset is expected to contribute greatly to national and regional climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability studies.Įvidence has revealed that the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic emissions caused observed global warming 1, 2, 3, 4. The reliability of estimations is verified against 2011–2019 statistical data and multiple published datasets. We build multiple models to evaluate the impact of different types of land use on the value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries and then gridded the projected value-added to a 5′ × 5′ resolution, based on recorded county-level economic statistics and gridded land use. The most recently implemented fertility-promoting and industrial planning policies in China are considered in our projections. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) global framework, the multidimensional model and Cobb-Douglas production model with localized population and economic parameters are used to develop the annual provincial population and value-added of primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China from 2020 to 2100. The trend of the output values of different industries is crucial for a variety of planning and design processes.
Gridded distribution of future economy plays an important role in climate change impact assessment.
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